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股市预测美国总统大选,特朗普被低估?

股市预测美国总统大选,特朗普被低估?

Lee Clifford 2020年10月21日
从股市看,美国总统大选更可能非常激烈。

股市是否知道民意调查机构不知道的一些事情?

这便是LPL Financial的首席市场策略师莱恩?德特里克想要介绍的内容。他一直在密切地关注股市以及美元的整体动向。

他在10月16日写道:“我们此前就注意到,从历史上来看,大选之前股市上扬则是支持现任总统,而股价走低则是支持新领导层入主白宫。”德特里克还表示,美元是另一个值得关注的指标。“事实上,如果大选前股市上扬美元下降,或股市下降美元上扬,那么大选结果就会精确地如上述预测的那样,过去7年一直都是如此。有鉴于当前股市有所上升,美元略有下降,这可能意味着,即将到来的大选将比任何人预计的都要更加焦灼。”

对特朗普总统来说是好消息?(美元的走弱以及股市的启高对于执政党来说是好消息,而其反向则是对在野党的支持。)来源:LPL Research, Strategas

确实,尽管乔?拜登在全国民调中遥遥领先,但有迹象表明,人们低估了外界对特朗普的支持。《财富》杂志的杰瑞米?卡恩在上周写道,曾经预测了脱欧的人工智能工具认为二位候选人的差距非常接近。卡恩解释说,Expert.ai公司“使用了名为‘情绪分析’的人工智能技术来了解社交媒体贴文中表达的情绪。该公司的分析显示,民主党候选人拜登以50.2%的支持率超出了特朗普总统的47.3%,这个差距要比最近全美民调中拜登支持率领先特朗普两位数的差距要小得多。”

其他人们常用的华尔街大选指标则给出了喜忧参半的结果。《财富》杂志的雷?玛莎耶吉写道,《FiveThirtyEight》栏目的内特?斯尔维认为,ISM制造业指数(ISM Manufacturing Index)是预测大选结果的最好指标。就这一点而言,“如果ISM在这一时期的平均水平高于50(意味着制造业的扩张),那么执政党有望获胜,如果低于50(意味着制造业的萎缩),那么通常意味着新党将入主白宫。”然而,该指数今年前9个月的平均值为50.3,这个数字告诉我们,大选异常焦灼,结果难以预料。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

股市是否知道民意调查机构不知道的一些事情?

这便是LPL Financial的首席市场策略师莱恩?德特里克想要介绍的内容。他一直在密切地关注股市以及美元的整体动向。

他在10月16日写道:“我们此前就注意到,从历史上来看,大选之前股市上扬则是支持现任总统,而股价走低则是支持新领导层入主白宫。”德特里克还表示,美元是另一个值得关注的指标。“事实上,如果大选前股市上扬美元下降,或股市下降美元上扬,那么大选结果就会精确地如上述预测的那样,过去7年一直都是如此。有鉴于当前股市有所上升,美元略有下降,这可能意味着,即将到来的大选将比任何人预计的都要更加焦灼。”

对特朗普总统来说是好消息?(美元的走弱以及股市的启高对于执政党来说是好消息,而其反向则是对在野党的支持。)来源:LPL Research, Strategas

确实,尽管乔?拜登在全国民调中遥遥领先,但有迹象表明,人们低估了外界对特朗普的支持。《财富》杂志的杰瑞米?卡恩在上周写道,曾经预测了脱欧的人工智能工具认为二位候选人的差距非常接近。卡恩解释说,Expert.ai公司“使用了名为‘情绪分析’的人工智能技术来了解社交媒体贴文中表达的情绪。该公司的分析显示,民主党候选人拜登以50.2%的支持率超出了特朗普总统的47.3%,这个差距要比最近全美民调中拜登支持率领先特朗普两位数的差距要小得多。”

其他人们常用的华尔街大选指标则给出了喜忧参半的结果。《财富》杂志的雷?玛莎耶吉写道,《FiveThirtyEight》栏目的内特?斯尔维认为,ISM制造业指数(ISM Manufacturing Index)是预测大选结果的最好指标。就这一点而言,“如果ISM在这一时期的平均水平高于50(意味着制造业的扩张),那么执政党有望获胜,如果低于50(意味着制造业的萎缩),那么通常意味着新党将入主白宫。”然而,该指数今年前9个月的平均值为50.3,这个数字告诉我们,大选异常焦灼,结果难以预料。(财富中文网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

Does the stock market know something the pollsters don’t?

That’s the takeaway from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, who has been closely monitoring both the overall stock market’s moves as well as the U.S. dollar.

As he wrote on October 16, “We’ve noted before that stock market gains ahead of the election historically support the incumbent party, while if stocks are lower it tends to support new leadership in the White House.” Detrick adds that the dollar is another indicator worth watching. “In fact, when stocks are up and the U.S. dollar is lower ahead of the election, or if stocks are lower and the U.S. dollar is higher before an election, the results have accurately predicted the last seven times those scenarios took place. Given stocks are up and the U.S. dollar is slightly lower, this could be one clue the upcoming election will be much closer than many are expecting.”

Indeed, despite a commanding lead in national polls, there are indications that support for Trump is somehow being undercounted. As Fortune’s Jeremy Kahn wrote last week, an A.I. tool that correctly predicted Brexit is showing a tight race. Expert.ai, explains Kahn, “uses an A.I. technique called ‘sentiment analysis’ to understand the emotions being expressed in social media posts. The company’s analysis puts Democratic candidate Joseph Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, 50.2% to 47.3%, a margin that is much narrower than the double-digit lead that Biden has over Trump in most national opinion polls.”

Other favorite Wall Street election indicators show a mixed bag. Fortune’s Rey Mashayekhi wrote that FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver considers the ISM Manufacturing Index to be the best metric for predicting elections. On that front, “if the ISM averages above 50 during that time (signaling an expanding manufacturing sector), that tends to bode well for the incumbent party, while an ISM average of below 50 (reflecting a contracting manufacturing sector) usually corresponds with a new party taking control of the White House.” With the index at 50.3 through the first nine months of the year, that’s another piece of data that suggests this election is still way too close to call.

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